(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* Strong domestic demand and accelerating investment in the mining sector will see economic growth in Namibia average a respectable 4.5% annually over the next five years. Over the near term export performance will continue to be weighed down by weak global demand and soft commodity prices.
* We expect the ruling SWAPO to secure a comfortable victory in November's general elections with the party likely to maintain its broadly pro-business economic agenda in the years ahead. A weak and under-funded opposition will preclude anything other than a minor swing away from the ruling party.
* Our broad outlook for Namibia's current account over the next few years remains relatively unchanged. We maintain that the country will sustain a sizeable current account shortfall over our 2014-2018 forecast period as demand for imports associated with new mining projects more than offsets a sluggish recovery in demand for key mineral exports.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924074_namibia_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
* No major forecast changes
Key Risks To Outlook:
* Namibia's small open economy is highly exposed to events on the world stage. While we have incorporated the ongoing global malaise into our economic forecasts if the situation abroad deteriorates (or conversely improves) more than we anticipate we would have to adjust our forecasts accordingly.
* Much of the economy remains closely tied to agriculture and weather poses substantial risks as illustrated by the ongoing drought which has threatened yields and food security. Changing weather conditions pose both upside and downside risks to a number of our forecasts including for growth inflation and trade.
Forecast Table:
The Namibia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Namibia and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Namibia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2017 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of The Namibia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise The Namibia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business inThe Namibia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Namibia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandBusiness Environment.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Namibian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Namibia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Namibia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Namibia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Namibia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in The Namibia over the next 5-years?
BMI's The Namibia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the The Namibian Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing The Namibia.
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