(MENAFNEditorial)
We have downgraded Thailand's domestic auto sales growth forecast and expect auto sales to contract 35.0% a more severe contraction compared to the 30.2% decline forecasted previously. Weak sales for the first nine months of 2014 have been broad based impacting both passenger cars and commercial vehicle segments. The slowdown is largely attributed to a sluggish economy weighed down by an uncertain political climate. According to Toyota Motor Thailand sales for passenger cars and commercial vehicles declined by 45.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 30.1% y-o-y respectively. For the overall auto sector sales contracted by 37.3% to 648410 units over the same period.
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The outlook for the sector remains weak for the remaining months of 2014 and we forecast passenger car sales to contract by 42.0% in 2014. Sluggish demand will largely be attributed to demand coming off a high base a weak economy and higher interest rates on auto loans. However we are positive on the sector's growth in 2015 and forecast sales to grow moderately by 3.9%. A recovery in auto sales will be backed by Thailand's strengthening economy and demand coming off a low base after a year of severe contraction. Phase two of the country's eco-car scheme will also provide a boost given that applications by various automakers for the scheme have been approved by Thailand's Board Of Investments. However we expect production for the segment to be mainly export focused given that domestic interest in eco-cars appears to be waning.
On the commercial vehicle (CV) front we forecast CV sales to contract by 28.7% in 2014 and expect CV sales to remain sluggish although a pickup in construction activity should result in a moderation of the slowdown seen in the segment. As with the passenger car segment we see the CV market recovering in 2015 and forecast CV sales to grow by 3.1% in 2015.
Despite the slowing domestic auto market resulting sharp decline in production (contraction of 27.0% y-o-y)...
The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production sales imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists corporate analysts auto associations government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Thailand.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views covering production sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market which can be linked with the country industry overview providing cross-country investment product and financing trends that will affect each market supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars commercial vehicles trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses pickups trucks and buses 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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