(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Tepid private consumption and a weaker net exports position will weigh on Argentine real GDP growth in 2015. A negotiated settlement allowing for the resumption of coupon payments on sovereign bonds in early 2015 will improve investor sentiment somewhat but a substantial uptick in investment is unlikely while the current administration remains in power.
* Pre-election spending and rising interest payments will see Argentina's primary and nominal budget deficits widen in 2015. The Argentine government will tap its foreign reserves in order to finance the budget shortfall exacerbating the country's weak external account position.
* The Argentine government will allow the peso to depreciate over the coming months as a drop in foreign currency reserves keeps downwards pressure on the exchange rate. We expect a more substantial devaluation to occur after the October 2015 presidential election as political pressure will preclude a major currency adjustment ahead of the poll.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924060_argentina_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Forecast Changes
* We revised down our 2016 exchange rate forecast as we believe that an easing of capital controls under a newly-elected government will drive a sharp depreciation in the peso.
Key Risks To Outlook
* The risks to our 2015 fiscal forecasts are weighted to the downside. Should Argentina's economic recession continue into next year revenue growth could come in below our expectations leading to a wider fiscal deficit. Weaker real GDP growth would likely be a result of the government failing to reach a settlement with holdout debt investors which would weigh heavily on investor sentiment. This would offset the fact that Argentine expenditures would be lower in the absence of interest payments.
* The risks to our balance of payments forecasts for Argentina are weighted to the downside. Weak economic growth in key trade partners such as Brazil could weigh on Argentine export growth more than our forecasts currently anticipate. Moreover soy prices could...
The Argentina Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Argentina and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Argentina's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Argentina's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Argentina's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Argentina including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Argentina Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookBusiness EnvironmentandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Argentina economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Argentina through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Argentina Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Argentina and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Argentina sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Argentina over the next 5-years?
BMI's Argentina country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
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