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Talking Points
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AUD/JPY Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
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AUDJPY coming into interim support / inflection range 96.50/63
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Break below targets support objectives at 96.00/08 & 95.40
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Resistance at 98.00/05 & 98.45/60- bearish invalidation
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Daily RSI probing sub-40 – close below would be bearish
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Event Risk Ahead: RBA Minutes tonight & BoJ on Friday
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AUD/JPY 30min
Notes:The monthly opening range break on December 9th shifted our focus to the short-side of the AUDJPY with the decline now coming into interim support at 96.50/62. This region is defined by the 1.618% Fibonacci extension taken off the November high & the April / July highs and has served as a major pivot in price throughout the year.
Bottom line: shorts into this region are at risk and we’ll look for a reaction here for further guidance. Note that the weekly opening range looks to be taking shape between the 98-handle and near-term support at 96.50/623 with a break above the median line shifting our near-term focus higher. That said a break sub 96.50 (close basis) is needed to maintain our short-bias with such scenario likely to see accelerated losses for the pair. Caution is warranted heading into event risk this week with the release of the minutes from the December RBA policy meeting tonight and the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie & Yen crosses.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
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Relevant Data Releases
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Other Setups in Play:
---Written by Michael Boutros Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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Interested in learning about Fibonacci Watch this Video
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