(MENAFNEditorial)
We expect the decline in Hungary's pharmaceutical market to stabilise in 2015 although a challenging operating environment and regulatory burden will weigh on market growth. Our country risk team also sees potential headwinds to spending growth namely Hungary's excessive government deficits and a German economic slowdown that will reverberate throughout the Central and Eastern European region. Pricing pressures and slow uptake of new medicines will continue to present near-term headwinds to pharmaceutical sales as will patent expiries.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: HUF566.71bn (USD2.53bn) in 2013 to HUF579.14bn (USD2.46bn) in 2014; +2.2% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: HUF2201bn (USD9.84bn) in 2013 to HUF2145bn (USD9.10bn) in 2014; -2.5% in local currency terms and -7.6% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Index
Our proprietary Risk/Reward assessment tool has been gradually adjusted to be increasingly transparent and sensitive in relation to potential Rewards. Therefore as its market opportunities become constrained Hungary has slipped down the regional table currently ranking tenth out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region with a score of 51.2. While its Risks profile is generally predictable Hungary's Rewards score continues to reflect its challenging pharmaceutical market outlook.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/904255_hungary_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Trends & Developments
* The fallout from the Ukraine crisis and cooling relations between Russia and the West have had an impact on Hungarian pharmaceutical manufacturers such as Egis and Gedeon Richter with exports to those two key markets declining markedly.
* Rules by the Hungarian government forcing pharmacists to take equity stakes in their businesses were investigated by the EU Commission for potentially breaching the principles of freedom of establishment and freedom of movement of capital.
* Sales of OTC medicines in H114...
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Table: Hungary's Petrochemical Industry 2011-2018 ('000tpa unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Hungary Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Hungary Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Upstream
Downstream
Company Profile
BorsodChem
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari (MOL)
Regional Overview
Europe Overview
Regulatory Concerns Add To Competitiveness Issues
Declining Capacities
Table: European Cracker Capacities 2013
Global Industry Overview
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers 2013
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
Gasoline
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast 2012-2018
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
Risks To Outlook
Diesel
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
New York's One-Off Heat Up
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
Risks To Outlook
Jet Fuel
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast USD/bbl
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
Risks To Outlook
Bunker Fuel
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
The Storm Clears For Shipping
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
Long-Term Threats Linger
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
Risks To Outlook
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios 1990-2020
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population 1990-2020
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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