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- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Keep Cash Rate at 2.50% for 15-Consecutive Meetings.
- Will RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Toughen the Verbal Intervention on Aussie
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Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision may prompt another near-term decline in AUD/USD should the central bank toughen the verbal intervention on the local currency.
What’s Expected:
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Why Is This Event Important:
The slowdown in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – may become a growing concern for the RBA amid the weakening outlook for global trade and Governor Glenn Stevens may implement a more aggressive approach to weaken the Australian dollar in an effort to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.
Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Release
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
Construction Work Done (3Q)
|
" style="text-align:center">
-1.9%
|
" style="text-align:center">
-2.2%
|
Wage Price Index (YoY) (3Q)
|
" style="text-align:center">
2.6%
|
" style="text-align:center">
0.1%
|
Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)
|
" style="text-align:center">
-1.0%
|
" style="text-align:center">
-11.0%
|
Subdued wage growth along with the ongoing deterioration in home affordability may push the RBA to adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy and AUD/USD may face another near-term decline should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to revert back to an easing cycle.
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Release
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)
|
" style="text-align:center">
-1.3%
|
" style="text-align:center">
0.5%
|
Employment Change (OCT)
|
" style="text-align:center">
20.0K
|
" style="text-align:center">
24.1K
|
Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (3Q)
|
" style="text-align:center">
0.5%
|
" style="text-align:center">
1.0%
|
However Governor Stevens may sound more upbeat this time around amid the pickup in job growth paired with the rebound in private consumption and the AUD/USD may face a larger rebound over the next 24-hours of trade should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost interest rate expectations.
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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bearish AUD Trade: RBA Favors Further Depreciation of Australian dollar
-
Need red five-minute candle following the policy statement for a potential short AUD/USD trade
-
If market reaction favors a bearish aussie trade sell AUD/USD with two separate position
-
Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
-
Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met set reasonable limit
Bullish AUD Trade: Governor Stevens Softens Dovish Tone for Monetary Policy
-
Need green five-minute candle to consider a long AUD/USD position
-
Carry out the same setup as the bearish aussie trade just in reverse
Read More:
Central Banks in Focus this Week as RBA ECB Meet NFPs on Friday
EURUSD Falls on Better Than Expected ISM Manufacturing
Potential Price Targets For The Release
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
-
Long-term approach favors selling-bounces as the bearish RSI momentum remains in play
-
Interim Resistance: 0.8710 (78.6% retracement) to 0.8730 (23.6% expansion)
-
Interim Support: 0.8390 (78.6% expansion) to 0.8410 (100% expansion)
Impact that RBA interest rate decision has had on AUD during the last release
Period
|
Data Released
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
|
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
|
" style="text-align:center">
NOV 2014
|
" style="text-align:center">
11/04/2014 03:30 GMT
|
" style="text-align:center">
2.50%
|
" style="text-align:center">
2.50%
|
" style="text-align:center">
+25
|
" style="text-align:center">
+35
|
November 2014 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision
As expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash target rate at a record-low of 2.50% in November in an effort foster a stronger recovery. Indeed Governor Glenn Stevens continued to highlight a neutral tone for monetary policy as the central bank head favors a period of interest rate stability but the Australian dollar remains at risk for a further decline as the RBA argues that the local currency remains overvalued. Despite the initial push higher there was limited follow-through behind the market reaction as AUD/USD ended the day at 0.8731.
--- Written by David Song Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren
To contact David e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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