(MENAFNEditorial)
Although we see Chinese economic growth slowing in the medium term we are optimistic for the commercial property sector as a whole as the maturing of the Chinese economy means that opportunities for new premium developments remain plentiful. Reflecting this view there is significant international interest in investing in Chinese commercial property.
We forecast a slowdown in Chinese economic growth despite government stimulus measures from 6.7% in 2015 and to under 6% by the end of our forecast period in 2018. The government is treading a fine line between continuing with policies to stimulate investment with badly needed market reforms. The market is also being hit by a fall in residential real estate prices with many predicting that the Chinese property bubble will burst. We do see prices continuing to fall although in our view this will be more a correction than a crash but it will undoubtedly have an impact on sentiment in the economy as a whole. However in general we are optimistic regarding the commercial real estate sector as demand remains strong and opportunities are plentiful.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/904226_china_real_estate_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Demand in the office sector is set to remain strong driven particularly by the premium property segment and services-related industries such as finance and IT with interest coming both from local and international firms. Overall the supply/demand dynamic will remain balanced as a result of a pipeline of new projects opening particularly of grade A space.
We see significant opportunities arising in the retail real estate sub-sector. As China's economy moves towards domestic consumption we believe that significant opportunities will arise in retail especially towards the premium end of the market in the mass grocery retail and clothing sectors in particular. If the economic slowdown has a more marked impact on household spending than we expect the sector could suffer but in general we are optimistic and see household spending rising significantly...
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Office
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD/sq m/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield 2010-2018 (%)
Retail
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD/sq m/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield 2010-2018 (%)
Industrial
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD/sq m/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield 2010-2018 (%)
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2012-2017)
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2018-2023)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
More Cities To Witness Price Declines
Government PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies
Economic Reforms Another Headwind
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
China - Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Shanghai
Beijing
Wuhan
Shenzhen
Office
Table: Net Yield 2012-2014
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
Retail
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
Table: Net Yield 2012-2014 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
Industrial
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
Table: Net Yield 2012-2014 (%)
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
China Merchants Group/China Merchants Property Development
Gemdale Corporation
Poly Real Estate Group
Shanghai Industrial Development
Demographic Forecast
Table: China's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: China's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: China's Key Population Ratios 1990-2020
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population 1990-2020
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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