(MENAFNEditorial)
We hold a very positive outlook regarding growth in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular. We also believe the country's livestock sector will post strong production growth despite dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry which could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. Much of the growth across the country's agricultural sphere can be attributed to significant government investment aimed to increase self-sufficiency and exports in various products.
On August 7 Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from select countries. We outline the major implications of the trade sanctions below:
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* Multilateral food trade will generally speaking be relatively unaffected.
* The US poultry and Norwegian fish sectors will be the biggest losers.
* The Brazilian meat sector and Belarus's agricultural industry will be the main beneficiaries.
* The import ban is likely to marginally increase Russian food price inflation which will provide added impetus for Russia's central bank to raise interest rates in the coming months.
* The ban adds downside price pressure to world grain markets.
In retaliation to trade sanctions imposed by the US and EU on August 7 Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from select countries. Russia will ban imports of the following agricultural products from the US EU Canada Australia and Norway:
* Beef
* Pork
* Poultry
* Fish
* Milk and dairy products
* Vegetables
* Fruit and nuts
* Prepared meat
* Finished food products
In the table below we outline the major exporters of these products to Russia and give our opinion on the countries that stand to gain and lose the most as a result of the measure.
The Russia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Russia.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.
Methodology & Sourcing
The Russia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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