(MENAFNEditorial)
Hong Kong
Core Views
* Hong Kong's economy slowed yet again in Q214 with real GDP growth coming in at a disappointing 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). Owing to dual headwinds from China as well as the teetering domestic property market we maintain our 2014 and 2015 real GDP forecasts to 2.5% and 3.3% . The ongoing political protests in Hong Kong carry downside risks for our 2014 growth forecast as commerce has been hit during the most acute phases of public participation. In particular tourism earnings are set to suffer significantly as Chinese tourists are discouraged from visiting the city-state.
* We continue to expect the nascent correction in Hong Kong property prices to continue over the course of 2015. However the correction is likely to be relatively mild with price declines in the range of 10-15% within the realm of possibility. Some upside risk to this forecast will remain in play as long as the city-state's supply-side woes although the rising likelihood of monetary tightening in the US in 2015 is clouding the medium-term outlook.
* While Hong Kong's fiscal position remains on a sound footing the potential for a normalisation of interest rates in the US could pose a challenge to the government. On the one hand government revenues will be hit by the subsequent fall in property prices in the city-state. As cooling measures are withdrawn this will also hit revenues. However we expect such measures to remain in place for the time being and see Hong Kong running a small fiscal surplus in 2015.
* The ongoing stand-off between pro-democracy protestors and the Hong Kong government is unlikely to yield any substantive results in terms of policy-making. Chief Executive CY Leung's government is not in favour of significant democratic reform and Beijing's mandate over Hong Kong's political system will only continue to grow over the coming years.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/900617_hong_kong_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Risk To Outlook
* The main downside risk to the Hong Kong economy continues to stem from...
The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hong Kong and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Hong Kong's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Hong Kong's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Hong Kong's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hong Kong including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookBusiness EnvironmentandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Hong Kong economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Hong Kong through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Hong Kong and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Hong Kong sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Hong Kong over the next 5-years?
BMI's Hong Kong country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.
For more information about these or related research reports please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.