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Talking Points:
- US Nonfarm Payrolls miss expectations by -21K at +214K.
- US unemployment rate ticks lowers to 5.8% as participation rate rises.
- EURUSD charges to $1.2441 before falling to fresh weekly lows.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls headline reading slipped to +214K for October missing analyst estimates of +235K. The prior reading of +248K was revised higher to +256K making the net-figure for the September and October only -10K below aggregate forecasts. The headline was probably the most disappointing aspect of the report even as wage figures continue to be muted.
Instead the US Dollar’s rebound after the headline figures were released can be predicated around the small drop in the US unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is derived from the Household Employment Survey which showed that the US economy gained +683K jobs in October. Coupled with a one-tenth of one percent rise in the labor force participation rate there is a clear picture that the US labor market is on sturdy ground and perhaps even strengthening.
Here’s a summary of the data this morning that’s responsible for US Dollar price action:
- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT): +214K versus +235K expected from +248K (revised higher to +256K).
- USD Change in Private Payrolls (OCT): +209K versus +225K expected from +236K (revised to +244K).
- USD Unemployment Rate (OCT): 5.8% versus 5.9% expected from 5.9%.
See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday November 7th 2014.
EURUSD 1-minute Chart: November 7 2014 Intraday
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Tyler Amend
EURUSD rallied to a high of $1.2441 before retracing all of its gains and continuing lower to a fresh weekly low of $1.2356. USD strength has been an overwhelming force across the majors since the initial knee-jerk reaction lower. EURUSD was trading at $1.2401 at the time this report was written.
Read more: Trade Setups in AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD Ahead of NFPs
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio Currency Strategist and Tyler Amend DailyFX Research
To contact Christopher Vecchio e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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