(MENAFNEditorial)
We have grown increasingly bearish on Vietnam's long-term oil and gas production outlook as new output and ongoing project expansions fail to offset severe decline at the country's major producing fields. Renewed exploration and several recent discoveries offer significant upside risk to our view; however more attractive pricing terms and improvements to the regulatory environment may be needed to accelerate project developments.
The main trends and developments for Vietnam's oil and gas sector are:
* Total crude oil and liquids output will rise in the short term as new fields are brought online or are ramped up to peak production levels. However this trend is set to reverse from 2018 as declines at Bach Ho outpace new output gains.
* BMI estimates gas production will rise over the coming years; however we flag Chevron's exit from the major Block B project as indication of the ongoing challenges facing investors in the country's gas sector. Although several companies have expressed interest in the project unless Vietnam can offer more attractive gas pricing terms progress on the block's development may be stilted. Gas demand will outstrip supply from 2017 exposing the country to rising gas import dependence.
* Oil and gas reserves could rise if...
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888218_vietnam_oil_gas_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
The Vietnam Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Vietnam including major indicators for oil gas and LNG covering all major indicators including reserves production consumption refining capacity prices export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Vietnam Oil & Gas Report provides professionals consultancies government departments regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Vietnam to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese oil and gas market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Vietnam.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis covering oil and gas reserves supply demand and refining plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production refining imports and exports of oil gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents NOCs IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption BMI provides demand supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl WTI Brent OPEC basket Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline gasoil/diesel jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
Production Consumption Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels) production consumption refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm) production and consumption (bcm)
Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d) value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm) Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses by US$ sales % share of total sales number of employees year established ownership structure oil production ('000b/d) gas production (bcm) downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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