(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Portugal's exit of its three-year international bailout programme in May 2014 will fail to herald an era of stability for the financially beleaguered country. In addition the government's recent decision to bailout a private lender will further stoke public discontent with the centre-right government. With general elections to be held in October 2015 we expect public support to continue shifting towards leftist and fringe parties dimming the outlook for structural reform from 2015 onwards.
* Portugal is poised to register limited current account surpluses over the next few years. However as import growth recovers with domestic demand the momentum behind the current account surplus expansion will wane and we expect the surplus to flip back into deficit by 2018.
Forecast Changes
* We have downgraded our forecast for export growth for 2014 - to 3.0% from 5.0% previously - due to a one-off drop in export levels from oil company Galp Energia following planned maintenance at the company's oil refinery in H114. Our downward revision for exports has also resulted in our adjustment of our current account balance forecast to 0.2% of GDP from 1.0% previously for 2014 and to 0.6% of GDP from 1.5% previously for 2015.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/887970_portugal_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Risks To Outlook
* Upside Risks To Economic Outlook: At present we do not envisage long-term real GDP growth rising much above 1.7% in the latter part of our long-term forecasts to 2023. However we would upgrade our forecasts upon evidence that the government's structural economic reform package is making headway.
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The Portugal Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Portugal and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Portugal's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Portugal's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Portugal's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Portugal including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Portugal Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Portugal economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Portugal through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Portugal Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Portugal and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Portugal sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Portugal over the next 5-years?
BMI's Portugal country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Portugal Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Portugal.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings rankings and trends for Portugal's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
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