(MENAFNEditorial)
While opportunities exist in the Philippines defence market in the short term opportunities in the medium-to-long term are far from certain. Although the defence spending is increasing there is a need to place it within a regional perspective. We think that the risk of Philippine involvement in an interstate conflict has increased slightly over the last quarter. Also the scaling back of US support for the Philippines counter-terrorism program may not bode well in the long term.
Relations with China further deteriorated following the Philippines sentencing of 12 Chinese fisherman arrested for illegal fishing in non-disputed waters. Another trial of Chinese fishermen for supposed activity near the disputed Spratly Islands risks aggravating further tensions between the two countries. BMI thinks that these incidents demonstrate the Philippines readiness to respond to what it perceives as Chinese aggression.
This readiness to respond to China is also evident from the increases in the defence budget directed at both personnel and equipment. While the air force still lacks fighter jets the acquisition of 12 FA-50 attack/fighter aircraft as well as 8 attack AW 1090 Power helicopters does provide it with minimum offensive capabilities. The Philippines Navy is also aiming to boost its offensive capabilities through procurement of armaments systems for the frigate building project.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888568_philippines_defence_security_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Beyond the defence issues the Philippines faces a number of internal security challenges notably terrorism and criminality. BMI notes that while the Philippines is developing successful defence relationships with countries with common interests notably Japan and the US to respond to China outside support to counter internal security risks is diminishing.
Key BMI Forecasts
* We forecast the value of arms and ammunitions imports to reach USD57bn and USD66.1bn for the end of 2014 and 2015 respectively.
* We forecast the Philippines defence trade balance to continue...
The Philippines Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security the defence industry military expenditure employment in arms production and arms imports and exports as well as examining industry trends and prospects national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Philippines Defence & Security Report provides professionals consultancies government departments regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Philippine defence and security industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Philippine defence and security market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Asia.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors economy and politics with issues subdivided into 'Strengths' 'Weaknesses' 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict terrorism and criminal risk backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore drawing on our country risk expertise we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces these include spending on international deployments WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism cyber terrorism crime and drugs to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles
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