Antofagasta reveals price drop but copper investors need not panic


(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK)  Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) is the latest blue-chip natural resources firm to flag weaker sales prices.
Nevertheless, the update from Anto was described by one analyst as "vanilla" as the company revealed no major issues and left guidance intact.
The miner, which is London's bellwether for copper, asserted it is on-track to hit production targets though the price it received for the red metal was some 8% lower at US$3.02 for the third quarter.
Cash costs also edged lower though, and at US$1.42 per pound margins still appear healthy enough.
These key stats reflect the present middle-lane nature of the copper market.
The boom days are surely gone, but, according to experts, copper mines aren't facing the same level of uncertainty as those besieged by the collapse in iron ore prices.
This is good news for London's smaller copper firms - like EMED Mining (LON:EMED) and Weatherly (LON:WTI), both of which are in the latter stages of development projects.
That said, copper has not found the bottom and most analysts predict prices are likely to soften for another twelve to eighteen months
Charlie Long, analyst at City firm Sanlam Securities, says environmental matters and restrictive money markets are still the bigger threats to copper mines - not falling prices.
Top tier miners like Anto, which have had the 'great mines' of the past, have their "best years behind them", he told Proactive Investors.
While Long believes Anto has reasonable growth prospects, he says they come with greater capital and operational costs.
In another market, at another time, mergers and acquisitions might be a solution. But, according to Long, softer metal prices and a lack of 'good' alternatives means blue-chip miners are more likely to stick rather than twist.
"There's a lot of cash on the side lines, both in companies and in private equity funds € where there is probably US$15bn waiting to be invested € but there are just not enough good quality low cost projects," Long said.
"With metal prices at this level, not enough projects look attractive and companies aren't willing to take the risk of buying what look like lower quality assets.
"A lot of projects don't really make sense unless metal prices are higher."
Long added that whilst risk-taking investors "will probably do well", private equity and industry players are likely to be more weary for as long as the copper price is subdued.


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