Pound to Fall on Ebbing BOE Rate Hike Bets if 3Q UK GDP Underperforms

(MENAFN- DailyFX) DailyFX.com - r>

" style="text-align:justify">

" style="text-align:justify"> Talking Points:

Pound to Fall on Ebbing BOE Rate Hike Outlook if 3Q GDP Underperforms
Yen Rose and Aussie Dollar Fell in Asia Mirroring Slide in S&P 500 Futures
Place Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Third-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. A slowdown is expected with output rising 0.7 percent in the three months through September compared with 0.9 percent in the prior period. UK news-flow has aggressively deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since mid-September hinting analysts are overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely weigh against Bank of England rate hike expectations punishing the British Pound. Needless to say an upside surprise stands to produce the opposite results.

The safety-linked Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade while the sentiment-sensitive Australian Dollar proved weakest on the session. The moves mirrored a drop in S&P 500 futures which the newswires chalked up to reports of the first confirmed case of Ebola in New York. Reports claimed markets were unnerved by swelling contagion fears considering the metropolis is the most populous US city. We suspect the move may have limited follow-through however as investors withhold commitment to a directional bias ahead of next week’s heavy-duty event risk.

New to FX START HERE!

Asia Session

" style="text-align:center"> GMT	" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> EVENT	" style="text-align:center"> ACT	" style="text-align:center"> EXP	" style="text-align:center"> PREV
" style="text-align:center"> 21:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Trade Balance (NZ$) (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> -1350M	" style="text-align:center"> -625M	" style="text-align:center"> -489M
" style="text-align:center"> 21:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> 648M	" style="text-align:center"> 1530M	" style="text-align:center"> 1778M
" style="text-align:center"> 21:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Exports (NZ$) (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> 3.61B	" style="text-align:center"> 3.50B	" style="text-align:center"> 3.51B
" style="text-align:center"> 21:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Imports (NZ$) (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> 4.97B	" style="text-align:center"> 4.20B	" style="text-align:center"> 4.00B
" style="text-align:center"> 1:30	" style="text-align:center"> CNY	China September Property Prices (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> -
" style="text-align:center"> 2:00	" style="text-align:center"> CNY	Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)	" style="text-align:center"> 302.6	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 299.9

European Session

" style="text-align:center"> GMT	" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> EVENT	" style="text-align:center"> EXP	" style="text-align:center"> PREV	" style="text-align:center"> IMPACT
" style="text-align:center"> 6:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	German GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV)	" style="text-align:center"> 8.0	" style="text-align:center"> 8.3	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:20	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	ECB's Praet Speaks in Milan	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q A)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.7%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.9%	" style="text-align:center"> High
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q A)	" style="text-align:center"> 3.0%	" style="text-align:center"> 3.2%	" style="text-align:center"> High
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Index of Services (MoM) (AUG)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.3%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.3%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Index of Services (3M/3M) (AUG)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.9%	" style="text-align:center"> 1.0%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 10:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	ECB Announces 3-year LTRO Repayment	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> Low

Critical Levels

" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 3	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 2	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 1	" style="text-align:center"> Pivot Point	" style="text-align:center"> Res 1	" style="text-align:center"> Res 2	" style="text-align:center"> Res 3
" style="text-align:center"> EURUSD	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2520	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2583	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2615	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2646	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2678	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2709	" style="text-align:center"> 1.2772
" style="text-align:center"> GBPUSD	" style="text-align:center"> 1.5898	" style="text-align:center"> 1.5963	" style="text-align:center"> 1.5997	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6028	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6062	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6093	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6158

" style="text-align:justify"> --- Written by Ilya Spivak Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

" style="text-align:justify"> To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email please SIGN UP HERE

" style="text-align:justify"> Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

original source

Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.