(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* As evidenced by strong rhetoric regarding its economic growth target in 2014 Beijing is likely to continue to implement targeted stimulus measures in order to avert a more acute economic slowdown. As a result of what we expect to be a balance between short-term stimulatory measures and longer-term economic reforms we have upgraded our 2015 real GDP forecast to 6.7% from 6.0% previously. At the same time we see the economy achieving a 7.3% rate of growth in 2014 versus our previous forecast of 7.1%.
* The Chinese government's official investigation in Zhou Yongkang is a major split from past precedent and will likely be the zenith of Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign. The campaign has also served as a purge to eliminate hostile political forces and we believe that it will pave the way for Xi to enact more aggressive economic reforms over the coming years.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/887955_china_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* Following the Chinese yuan's recent appreciatory run we have upgraded our end-2014 and end-2015 forecasts on the unit to CNY6.2000/USD and 6.2500/USD respectively from CNY6.3500/USD and CNY6.4000/USD previously. That said we continue to see downside forces acting against the currency as the PBoC may look to utilise the currency as a stimulatory tool in the face of a slowing economy.
Key Risks To Outlook
* A key downside risk to our economic outlook remains another collapse in external demand such as the one that occurred at the height of the global financial crisis. This would seriously undermine growth in trade-dependent industries and hasten a fall in the property market potentially leading to an outright recession. There is also a risk that greater-than-expected fiscal and monetary stimulus by government and the People's Bank of China could usher in stagflation.
* A hard-landing scenario is also a key risk in China as falling property prices amid rising domestic debt levels could set the stage for a financial crisis. While we believe that this...
The China Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in China and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of China's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of China's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise China's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in China including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The China Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the China economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for China through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The China Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for China and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on China sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in China over the next 5-years?
BMI's China country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the China Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing China.
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