(MENAFN- The Peninsula) Shia rebels in Yemen who overran much of the capital have signed a security agreement that stipulates disarmament and withdrawal from areas they have seized in months.
The Associated Press (AP) reported yesterday that the Houthis inked the deal which is part of a comprehensive agreement brokered by the United Nations. Their political rivals, the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islah party, and other parties signed as well.
AP said it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will abide by the deal. They are the strongest force on the ground in the capital Sana'a, where they have deployed thousands of fighters, set up checkpoints and seized weapons from army barracks.
Meanwhile, famous newspaper columnists in the GCC, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have been speculating in their writings about the ramifications of a new Yemen for the GCC states as a whole.
Saudi columnist Jamal Khashoggi wonders what Riyadh's policy would be vis-Ã -vis Yemen in the changed scenario when Iran-backed Houthis are sharing power in the country as part of a national coalition.
In a recent column he says that Saudi Arabia and Iran that were face-to-face in Lebanon (apparently a reference to one supporting Shias while the other, Sunnis) must now confront each other in Yemen as well. According to Khashoggi, the movement of the Houthis is known as Ansarallah, which is inspired by one of their legendary forefathers, Badruddin Al Houthi.
Houthis began their protests in February of 2011 demanding the resignation of the then president Ali Abdullah Saleh and political reforms and democracy.
Saleh did step aside and was replaced by a transitional successor, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, making people happy and hopeful of positive changes taking place.
According to Khashoggi, people became impatient and frustrated when the allegedly corrupt associates of Saleh were not brought to book and no reforms were forthcoming.
The Houthis began their protests again reviving their demand for reforms. "The Houthis want to rule Yemen but they are foxy. So they can neither be dictators nor fascists, for Yemen wouldn't accept either," said Khashoggi.
"So the only option they have is to forget about total domination and be accommodative and set up a multi-ethnic polity."
Houthis are not in a majority in Yemen. They are just a third of Yemen's population, said the columnist. "And they are native to Yemen and not outsiders. They have ruled Yemen in the remote past."
Khashoggi said the Houthis could have walked into the presidential palace last Monday and ousted Hadi, a weak president. But they didn't do so since that would have fragmented the country and left Houthis in-charge of only a part.
When the Houthis entered Sana'a last week they ransacked the capital city and plundered homes. Their main objective is to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood whose influence has been rising in Yemen. That was the reason why the Houthi demonstrators did not target Saleh's People's Congress party (since it wasn't popular at all) during February 2011 revolution and instead targeted the Muslim Brotherhood.
A new Yemen is emerging where the Houthis would call the shots, leaving Saudi Arabia thinking of options to deal with the new reality.
Saudi Arabia shares its longest and most difficult border with Yemen and has one of the closest interactions with it. Since the smaller GCC states are all in close contact with Riyadh, they all would be influenced by the new Yemen.
The biggest challenge for the Saudis is that Yemen under the Houthis would be free to select its friends (Iran?) and foes.
However, the greatest challenge for the Houthis is that if they fail to set up a multi-ethnic polity and a democratic set-up, there would be chances of a civil war, said Khashoggi.
Kuwaiti columnist Dr Mohamed Al Rumaihi said in his latest piece that Sana'a was the fourth Arab capital to fall (after Tunis, Tripoli and Cairo).
"But Iran is making a mistake. Yemenis are a proud people. They lack resources, so they can only be hired temporarily and cannot be bought over forever. This is impossible," said Al Rumaihi.
It is not like Lebanon where Shias are in small numbers and can be recruited by Tehran and controlled by it. For Iran, Yemen wouldn't even be like Syria, said Al Rumaihi.
"The Houthis are not even in a so-called majority like the Shias in Iraq," he added. The Houthis can at best be a part of a broader alliance (so Iran could have restricted influence over the country)."
Qatari columnist Abdulaziz Al Mahmoud complained in his latest column that the media had failed to give the correct picture as regards Houthis in Yemen. They had plundered Sana'a and the media did not highlight it at all, wrote Al Mahmoud.
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