(MENAFNEditorial)
Libya is at a significant crossroads following the conclusion of the civil war in 2011 and the end of the 42-year rule of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The country is home to an educated population and a considerable oil and petrochemicals industry. For these reasons the internal situation in Libya has significant ramifications beyond the country's borders.
Libya is at a significant crossroads following the conclusion of the civil war in 2011 and the end of the 42-year rule of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The country is home to an educated population and a considerable oil and petrochemicals industry. For these reasons the internal situation in Libya has significant ramifications beyond the country's borders.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/872639_libya_defence_security_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Key Forecasts
* We expect Libya to spend USD1.3bn on defence in 2014 and believe the defence budget will continue to grow over 2015-2018 to reach USD2.6bn.
* We have given Libya an overall Security Risk Rating of 39 for Q414. We believe that Libya has a high chance of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict and there is a severe risk of the country experiencing significant terrorist action. We also expect the country to continue to suffer endemic violent crime.
Key Developments
Parliamentary elections were held in Libya on June 25 2014. However turnout was reportedly low with only 630000 people out of 2.8mn who had registered to vote casting a ballot. It was reported in May 2014 that militia groups operating in Libya has stolen hundreds of US-supplied weapons during a raid on a military base where US military instructors were performing training for the reconstituted Libyan armed forces. Some of the equipment was reportedly recovered although some is thought to have entered the black market and may be equipping criminals and militia organisations active in Libya. US special forces have been able to capture Ahmed Abu Khattala who is wanted in connection with the 2012 attack on one of the country's diplomatic compounds that killed the US ambassador...
The Libya Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security the defence industry military expenditure employment in arms production and arms imports and exports as well as examining industry trends and prospects national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Libya Defence & Security Report provides professionals consultancies government departments regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Libyan defence and security industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Libya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Libyan defence and security market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Asia.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors economy and politics with issues subdivided into 'Strengths' 'Weaknesses' 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict terrorism and criminal risk backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore drawing on our country risk expertise we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces these include spending on international deployments WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism cyber terrorism crime and drugs to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles
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