(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Despite an escalation in violence along the border of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in July/August 2014 it is not part of our core scenario to see the outbreak of a widespread military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the leadership of each side espoused aggressive nationalist rhetoric in order to ensure domestic support the key powers in the region (Armenia-supporting Russia and Azerbaijan-supporting Turkey) are unlikely to favour an outbreak of conflict on their southern and eastern flanks respectively.
* The Armenian real GDP growth will slow in 2015 on the back of declining export demand from Russia as well as stagnating remittance growth a key driver of private consumption. With Armenia set to join the Eurasian Economic Union on January 1 2015 we believe the economy will remain heavily reliant on Russian support over the coming years.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/871616_caucasus_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* On the back of robust growth in H114 and positive leading indicators we have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Georgia in 2014 and 2015 from 3.4% and 4.1% to 4.4% and 4.2% respectively. We expect growth to slow in 2015 from 2014 as growth in exports to Russia slows on the back of Moscow discontinuing a free trade agreement in retribution for Georgia deepening its ties with the EU.
Key Risks To Outlook
* Given the relatively weak links between the two countries' economies we do not believe Georgia's shift towards the EU will be hindered by punitive Russian sanctions. However a continuation of the poor relations between Moscow and the West could lead to the Russian government becoming more aggressive in its dealings with states it views as within its sphere of influence. A Russian military incursion beyond the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia could result not only in a widespread military conflict in Georgia but also likely some form of retaliatory action by the West.
The Caucasus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Armenia Azerbaijan and Georgia and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of the Caucasus' economic political and financial prospects through end-2017 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of the Caucasus' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Caucasus' country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in the Caucasus including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Caucasus Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook and Business Environment.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Caucasian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for the Caucasus through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Caucasus Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for the Caucasus and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on the Caucasus sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in the Caucasus over the next 5-years?
BMI's Caucasus country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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