(MENAFNEditorial)
We expect Iraq to spend up to USD21bn on defence in 2014. For the remainder of the forecast period up to and including 2018 we expect Iraq to spend an average of USD33.9bn on defence annually. By 2018 we expect the country's defence budget to have reached USD42.9bn.
We have given Iraq and overall security risk rating of 42 for Q414. On average the country scores an overall security risk rating of 49 for the period December 2007 until Q414. We believe Iraq to have a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Nevertheless the country continues to suffer high incidences of terrorist attack and also criminal activity.
From January 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS); an Islamist insurgent organisation which has a strong presence in Iraq and in Syria and has began to capture significant quantities of Iraqi territory which remain under its control. As of July 2014 a swathe of territory stretching from the Iraq-Syria border stretching southeast towards Baghdad and northeast towards the borders of Kurdish-controlled Iraq remains under its control. Iraq is for all intents and purposes now experiencing a major civil war.
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By June 2014 ISIS has taken control of the cities Mosul and Fallujah along with most of the surrounding Nineveh Province in the north of Iraq. Other areas to fall under ISIS control included the city of Tikrit north of Baghdad. Attempts were made in early June 2014 to capture the city of Samarra but these were repulsed by the Iraqi armed forces. By mid-2015 the city of Tal Afar in the far north of Iraq had fallen under ISIS control. On 22 June 2014 these gains were followed up by ISIS' capture of two strategic border crossings into Syria allowing the uninterrupted flow of materiel and troops between the two countries. By the end of the month the movement's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as Caliph and had declared areas under ISIS control to constitute a new Caliphate with the movement changing its name...
The Iraq Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security the defence industry military expenditure employment in arms production and arms imports and exports as well as examining industry trends and prospects national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Defence & Security Report provides professionals consultancies government departments regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iraqi defence and security industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iraqi defence and security market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Asia.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors economy and politics with issues subdivided into 'Strengths' 'Weaknesses' 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict terrorism and criminal risk backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore drawing on our country risk expertise we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces these include spending on international deployments WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism cyber terrorism crime and drugs to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles
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