(MENAFNEditorial)
Leading indicators support our view that Mexico's construction sector will return to growth in H214 . Following a 4.5% contraction in industry value in 2013 due to persistent delays in reviving public sector investment and a depressed housing market we expect growth of 3% in 2014 accelerating to 4% in 2015. The recovery is being fuelled by the MXN7.7trn National Infrastructure Plan which is supporting an uptick in public sector investment and financial support for construction activity.
We expect growth in Mexico's construction sector will return in H214 supporting a slow recovery in net output real growth. In line with this view industrial production data for construction posted the first month of expansion in June 2014 following 19 months of contractions. This follows the first expansion in construction spending (on buildings) in May 2014 following 17 months of contractions for this indicator. These developments support our view and our estimate for a 3% expansion in construction sector growth in 2014. Growth is expected to accelerate from 2015 with annual average real growth of 3.6% between 2015 and 2018. There is additional upside to this figure from the National Infrastructure Plan and Energy sector reform.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/872643_mexico_infrastructure_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Infrastructure High On The Presidential Agenda
In April 2014 President Enrique Pena Nieto outlined a significantly expanded version of his National Infrastructure Plan setting the new investment target at MXN7.7trn between 2014 and 2018.
However we remain concerned about institutional capacity and Mexico's ability to implement the programme given the poor precedent that was set during the execution of the previous plan. As such believe 2014 will be crucial in assessing the timeframe over which the NIP will revitalise the country's depressed construction industry and will thus refrain from revising up our five-year growth forecast for Mexico's construction sector.
Mexico's infrastructure sector has been stagnating over the...
The Mexico Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects including transportation and logistics by land sea and air; power plants and utilities and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Mexico Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican infrastructure and construction industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican infrastructure market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Mexico.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social commercial and residential) Transport (roads railways ports airports etc) and Energy & Utilities (powerplants renewable projects pipelines and so on).
Industry Trends
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways airports roads and bridges ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids oil and gas pipelines and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Company Profiles
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