Euro, Pound May Look Past Factory Data as BOE and ECB Loom Ahead

Date

8/6/2014 1:35:18 AM

(MENAFN- DailyFX) DailyFX.com - r>

" style="text-align:justify">

" style="text-align:justify"> Talking Points:

NZ Dollar Drops on Fading RBNZ Rate Hike Bets Soft Jobs Figures
Euro Pound May Not Find Drivers in Assorted Factory-Sector Data
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The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed disappointing economic data that showed employment grew 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared with the three months through March an outcome that fell short of economists’ forecasts calling for a 0.7 percent increase.

The Kiwi’s slide tracked a parallel decline in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield hinting the data undermined RBNZ rate hike expectations. A drop in the jobless rate failed to mitigate negativity considering it came alongside a decline in participation suggesting the lower headline figure owed more to a shrinking labor force than a pickup in hiring.

Looking ahead an assortment of European activity data seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the markets. German Factory Orders and UK Industrial Production figures headline the docket but traders are unlikely to commit to a firm directional bias on the basis of the outcomes as heavy-duty event risk by way of the ECB and BOE monetary policy announcements looms ahead later in the week. We are holding short EURUSD and waiting to identify a short GBPUSD setup.

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Asia Session

" style="text-align:center"> GMT	" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> EVENT	" style="text-align:center"> ACT	" style="text-align:center"> EXP	" style="text-align:center"> PREV
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Unemployment Rate (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 5.6%	" style="text-align:center"> 5.8%	" style="text-align:center"> 5.9%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.4%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.7%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.9%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 3.7%	" style="text-align:center"> 4.0%	" style="text-align:center"> 3.7%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 68.9%	" style="text-align:center"> 69.3%	" style="text-align:center"> 69.2%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.5%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.3%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.5%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.7%
" style="text-align:center"> 22:45	" style="text-align:center"> NZD	Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (2Q)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.5%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.3%
" style="text-align:center"> 23:01	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -1.9%	" style="text-align:center"> -1.6%	" style="text-align:center"> -1.8%
" style="text-align:center"> 5:00	" style="text-align:center"> JPY	Coincident Index (JUN P)		" style="text-align:center"> 109.6	" style="text-align:center"> 111.3
" style="text-align:center"> 5:00	" style="text-align:center"> JPY	Leading Index (JUN P)		" style="text-align:center"> 105.4	" style="text-align:center"> 104.8

European Session

" style="text-align:center"> GMT	" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> EVENT	" style="text-align:center"> EXP	" style="text-align:center"> PREV	" style="text-align:center"> IMPACT
" style="text-align:center"> 6:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.9%	" style="text-align:center"> -1.7%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 6:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)	" style="text-align:center"> 1.1%	" style="text-align:center"> 5.5%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 7:00	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Halifax House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.4%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 7:00	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> 9.6%	" style="text-align:center"> 8.8%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 7:15	" style="text-align:center"> CHF	CPI (MoM) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -0.4%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 7:15	" style="text-align:center"> CHF	CPI (YoY) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.0%	" style="text-align:center"> 0.0%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 7:15	" style="text-align:center"> CHF	CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -0.2%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 7:15	" style="text-align:center"> CHF	CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -0.3%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 7:30	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 45.5	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:00	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 6.2%	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:10	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Markit France Retail PMI (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 47.6	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:10	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Markit Italy Retail PMI (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 43.8	" style="text-align:center"> Low
" style="text-align:center"> 8:10	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Markit Germany Retail PMI (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 56.2	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:10	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (JUL)	" style="text-align:center"> -	" style="text-align:center"> 50.0	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> -1.3%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)	" style="text-align:center"> 2.1%	" style="text-align:center"> 3.7%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.6%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.7%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 8:30	" style="text-align:center"> GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)	" style="text-align:center"> 1.5%	" style="text-align:center"> 2.3%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 9:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.5%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium
" style="text-align:center"> 9:00	" style="text-align:center"> EUR	Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)	" style="text-align:center"> 0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> -0.1%	" style="text-align:center"> Medium

Critical Levels

" style="text-align:center"> CCY	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 3	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 2	" style="text-align:center"> Supp 1	" style="text-align:center"> Pivot Point	" style="text-align:center"> Res 1	" style="text-align:center"> Res 2	" style="text-align:center"> Res 3
" style="text-align:center"> EURUSD	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3252	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3319	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3348	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3386	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3415	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3453	" style="text-align:center"> 1.3520
" style="text-align:center"> GBPUSD	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6785	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6829	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6858	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6873	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6902	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6917	" style="text-align:center"> 1.6961

" style="text-align:justify"> -- Written by Ilya Spivak Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

" style="text-align:justify"> To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email please SIGN UP HERE

" style="text-align:justify"> Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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