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Talking Points:
• A common question posed to me asks whether the US Dollar is still considered a 'safe haven' currency
• In the spectrum of 'Safe to Risky' or 'Funding to Carry', the Dollar is still a liquidity haven
• Yet, when risk trends are not at the extremes of fear to greed, other themes tend to take over
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Over the past year, the Dollar has consolidated against a backdrop of a remarkably consistent S&P 500 advance. Is this a sign that the currency is shedding its safe haven status Is it starting to turn into a carry appeal against counterparts like the Euro Currencies, asset classes and market benchmarks do see their appeal wax and wane over time which alters their relationship to 'risk trends'. However, the Dollar's position as a safe haven is not likely changing - just as its appeal as a carry currency is meaningfully climbing. Rather, the change we are seeing more likely a drop in conviction behind risk trends (whether we are talking bullish or bearish). We look at the dollar, sentiment trends and their relationship in today's Strategy Video.
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