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Talking Points:
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British Pound Looking to 2Q GDP to Inform BOE Interest Rate Hike Bets
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Australian Dollar Declined Overnight as Post-CPI Correction Continued
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Second-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest output grew 0.8 percent, matching the first-quarter outcome. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 3.1 percent, the fastest in almost seven years.
Data from Citigroup shows UK economic news-flow aggressively deteriorated relative to expectations in the three months through June, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely to undermine BOE interest rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.
The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a decline in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the selloff reflected moderation in investors’ RBA policy outlook following a surge triggered by second-quarter CPI figures.
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Asia Session
|
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
|
23:01
|
GBP
|
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUL)
|
0.1%
|
-
|
0.3%
|
|
23:01
|
GBP
|
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUL)
|
5.8%
|
-
|
6.0%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI (YoY) (JUN)
|
3.6%
|
3.5%
|
3.7%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)
|
3.3%
|
3.3%
|
3.4%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)
|
2.3%
|
2.3%
|
2.2%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL)
|
2.8%
|
2.8%
|
3.0%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
|
2.8%
|
2.7%
|
2.8%
|
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
|
2.1%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
PPI Services (YoY) (JUN)
|
3.6%
|
3.6%
|
3.6%
|
|
1:00
|
NZD
|
ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL)
|
45.1
|
-
|
45.8
|
|
1:00
|
NZD
|
ANZ Business Confidence (JUL)
|
39.7
|
-
|
42.8
|
European Session
|
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
IMPACT
|
|
6:00
|
EUR
|
German GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)
|
8.9
|
8.9
|
Low
|
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
German IFO - Current Assessment (JUL)
|
114.5
|
114.8
|
Medium
|
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
German IFO - Expectations (JUL)
|
104.4
|
104.8
|
Medium
|
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
German IFO - Business Climate (JUL)
|
109.4
|
109.7
|
Medium
|
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
|
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
Low
|
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M Avg) (JUN)
|
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
Low
|
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A)
|
0.8%
|
0.8%
|
High
|
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A)
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
High
|
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Index of Services (MoM) (MAY)
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
Low
|
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAY)
|
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
Low
|
Critical Levels
|
CCY
|
Supp 3
|
Supp 2
|
Supp 1
|
Pivot Point
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
Res 3
|
|
EURUSD
|
1.3368
|
1.3415
|
1.3440
|
1.3462
|
1.3487
|
1.3509
|
1.3556
|
|
GBPUSD
|
1.6828
|
1.6915
|
1.6951
|
1.7002
|
1.7038
|
1.7089
|
1.7176
|
-- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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