Turkish bank shaves rate, but resists Erdogan pressure


(MENAFN- AFP) Turkey's central bank shaved half a percentage point from its key interest rate on Thursday, resisting vehement pressure from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for more aggressive easing ahead of presidential elections in August.

But economists warned that even the relatively modest cut - the reduction in a row by the bank - was a risky move in a country with high inflation and a substantial current account deficit.

The bank cut its one week repurchase rate to 8.25 percent from 8.75 percent, saying that a "measured cut" was appropriate in the current economic situation.

The bank also lowered overnight borrowing rate from 8.0 percent to 7.5 percent.

But it was not clear if the relatively modest cut will be enough to satisfy Erdogan, who has demanded sharper reductions to stimulate growth as he prepares to stand in the presidential polls.

The central bank - which is nominally independent - had sharply raised key rates in January in response to a steep drop in the lira that had threatened a currency crisis. Turkey's currency had been under pressure since early last year amid pressure from Erdogan for rates to be kept low.

In January, the bank raised the one-week repurchase rate from 4.5 percent to 10 percent. Erdogan's supporters in the government have called in recent weeks for the rates to be slashed back again.

But the bank indicated that the time was not right for an aggressive cut to pre-January levels and it still had its eye on inflation.

"Inflation expectations, pricing behaviour and other factors that affect inflation will be closely monitored and the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained," it said.

Annual inflation dropped to 9.16 percent in June from a two year high of 9.66 percent in May.

But the bank also justified the economic rationale behind the decision to cut, saying that the "adverse impact of exchange rate developments since mid 2013 on annual inflation is gradually tapering off."

The Turkish lira strengthened slightly against the dollar after the announcement, with markets apparently heartened that the bank was still showing a degree of independence.

At its last meeting on June 24, the bank had cut the benchmark rate by 75 basis points - following up on a 50 basis point cut in May, a move that met with only a very lukewarm approval by the government.

But William Jackson, ecomomist at Capital Economics in London, said the cuts were premature, with inflationary pressure still high.

"We're not convinced by the bank's argument. Underlying price pressures in the economy are stronger than it acknowledges," he wrote in a note to clients.

"As a result, inflation is likely to remain stubbornly high," he added.

He said the bank was "now bowing to government pressure to lower interest rates" and predicted the benchmark rate would fall to 6.50 percent this year before being raised again next year.


AFP

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