Quotes: MENA   Enter Symbol: NewsLetter: Search: advanced

Economies of Arab Spring states 'remain depressed'  Join our daily free Newsletter

MENAFN - Arab News - 16/01/2014
No. of Ratings : 0
Add to Mixx!



(MENAFN - Arab News) Three years after the Arab Spring, the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region remain depressed. Political turmoil in Egypt, stalemate in Tunisia and an escalation of the civil war in Syria, with spillovers to neighboring Lebanon and Jordan, have weakened activity in the developing oil-importing countries, according to a report by the World Bank



Egypt's GDP contracted by 3.2 percent (on annualized basis) in Q2, 2013, and growth for the fiscal year (ending in the same quarter) amounted to 2.0 percent, down from a modest 2.3 percent in 2012



Industrial production in oil-importing countries contracted by 36 percent (on annualized basis) in the three months through October, led mainly by a sharp decline of 44 percent in Egypt. However, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months and remained so in December as well, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward. Tourism arrivals in the oil-importing countries plunged dramatically because of security uncertainties in the wake of regime change in Egypt in 2013 and the continuing Syrian civil war, which affected Lebanon and Jordan. Tourist arrivals dropped by 57 percent (on annualized basis) in the three months through September in the oil-importing countries



Oil production in oil-exporting countries - accounting for nearly a third of the region's oil output - has fallen over the past year by nearly 8.5 percent (year to date) in 2013, reflecting security setbacks, strikes, and infrastructure problems in Algeria, Iraq, and Libya, and international sanctions in the case of Iran



External imbalances have worsened across the developing countries of the region. Current account deficits have widened in the oil-importing countries - hurt particularly by the steep decline in tourism receipts - while current account surpluses have shrunk for the oil-exporting countries as oil exports have declined. With only a few eceptions, fiscal imbalances have worsened across the region, especially in oil-importing countries. Deterioration reflects weaker revenues due to slow growth, rising public sector spending on wages, subsidies for food and fuel in the wake of the Arab Spring and, in some cases, increased debt servicing charges




Growth in the developing countries of the region is expected to remain weak during the forecast period, the World Bank said. Under the baseline scenario, marked improvement in the political uncertainty that has plagued the region is not expected. Consequently, aggregate growth for the region, which contracted by 0.1 percent in 2013, is projected at 2.8 percent in 2014, firming to 3.3 in 2015 and 3.6 percent in 2016, well below the region's potential. In developing oil importing countries, consumption will be underpinned by large public outlays on wages and subsidies, while public investment will likely be constrained in the forecast period by large fiscal deficits, while growth in developing oil exporters will strengthen as the oil prices remain relatively high and infrastructure problems and security setbacks are resolved and mitigated



The region's outlook is subject to significant downside risks that are mostly internal to the region. A further escalation of violence in Syria and spillovers to other countries can adversely affect the region. Setbacks in political transitions and further escalation of violence would further undermine confidence and delay the structural reforms or reduce oil output



External risks are more balanced. European growth could disappoint the already modest recovery projected, but it could also do better. Risks from a tightening of global financial conditions could lead to a rise in risk premiums for developing countries and lead to lower FDI. Furthermore, a sharper-than-projected decline in commodity prices could lead to a significant deterioration in external and fiscal accounts of the oil exporting countries while benefiting more vulnerable importers

 


Arab News




  MENA News Headlines
 Jun 30 2016 - Tennis: Roger Federer ends Willis' Wimbledon fairytaleMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Marcus Willis'' Wimbledon fairytale came to an end against Roger Federer, but the British qualifier''s 6-0, 6-3, 6-4 defeat couldn''t ruin a day to remember for the new star ...

 Jun 30 2016 -  Tough love: psychology of Argentina's Messi relationshipMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Like neurotic parents, Argentines swung from criticism to unconditional love for their star footballer Lionel Messi this week, providing the soccer-mad nation''s many ...

 Jun 30 2016 -  Cricket: Anil Kumble takes charge with eye on bowlersMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Anil Kumble thinks a year - and 17 Test matches - is enough for India to make its mark on all three formats of cricket. Kumble''s one-year contract as coach of the national ...

 Jun 30 2016 - Golden age Hollywood starlet Olivia de Havilland turns 100Muscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Paris- Screen legend Olivia de Havilland, who turns 100 on Friday, is the last surviving star from "Gone with the Wind" and one of the last great stars of ...

 Jun 30 2016 - Obama to campaign with Clinton, Trump shrinks gapMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Washington- President Barack Obama will campaign with presumptive Democratic White House nominee Hillary Clinton for the first time next Tuesday, as a new poll shows a ...

 Jun 30 2016 - New York's Empire State Building to go dark for TurkeyMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) New York- New York''s famed Empire State Building will go dark on Wednesday in tribute to the 41 people killed and 239 wounded in a suicide attack at Istanbul''s main ...

 Jun 30 2016 -  Brazil has 'total confidence' in Olympics securityMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Rio de Janeiro- Brazil has "total confidence" that it can ensure security for more than half a million tourists and athletes attending the Rio Olympics this August, ...

 Jun 30 2016 -  Eight killed as fire guts pharmacy in IndiaMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Mumbai- Eight people were killed when a fire gutted a pharmacy in India''s financial capital Mumbai on Thursday, police said. One other person was seriously injured in the ...

 Jun 30 2016 -  Engine failure, errors by crew led to deadly Taipei crash: reportMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) Taipei - A plane crash in Taiwan that killed 43 people when a passenger jet plunged into a river was caused by engine failure and flight crew errors, a damning final ...

 Jun 30 2016 - NY entrepreneur swapping start-ups for charityMuscat Daily
(MENAFN - Muscat Daily) New York- After making millions before turning 40, a New York-based entrepreneur is dreaming of transforming charitable giving by bringing his start-up stardust and ...

more...


 





Google

 
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network

MENAFN News Market Data Countries Tools Section  
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network
Arabic MENAFN

Main News
News By Industry
News By Country

Islamic Finance News
Private Equity News

How-To Guides
Technology Section

Travel Section

Search News

Market Indices
Quotes & Charts

Global Indices
Arab Indices

Commodoties

Oil & Energy

Currencies Cross Rates
Currencies Updates
Currency Converter

USA Stocks
Arab Stocks
 

Algeria 
Bahrain 
Egypt 
Iraq
Jordan 
Kuwait 
Lebanon
Morocco 
Oman 
Palestine
Qatar 
Saudi Arabia 
Syria
Tunisia 
UAE 
Yemen

Weather
Economic Calendar
Financial Glossary


Financial Calculators

RSS Feeds [XML]

Corporate Monitor

Events

Real Estate
Submit Your Property

Arab Research
Buy a Research

Press Releases
Submit your PR

Join Newsletters


 
© 2014 menafn.com All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Advertise | About MENAFN | Career Opportunities | Feedback | Help