Quotes: MENA   Enter Symbol: NewsLetter: Search: advanced

Economies of Arab Spring states 'remain depressed'  Join our daily free Newsletter

MENAFN - Arab News - 16/01/2014
No. of Ratings : 0
Add to Mixx!



(MENAFN - Arab News) Three years after the Arab Spring, the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region remain depressed. Political turmoil in Egypt, stalemate in Tunisia and an escalation of the civil war in Syria, with spillovers to neighboring Lebanon and Jordan, have weakened activity in the developing oil-importing countries, according to a report by the World Bank



Egypt's GDP contracted by 3.2 percent (on annualized basis) in Q2, 2013, and growth for the fiscal year (ending in the same quarter) amounted to 2.0 percent, down from a modest 2.3 percent in 2012



Industrial production in oil-importing countries contracted by 36 percent (on annualized basis) in the three months through October, led mainly by a sharp decline of 44 percent in Egypt. However, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months and remained so in December as well, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward. Tourism arrivals in the oil-importing countries plunged dramatically because of security uncertainties in the wake of regime change in Egypt in 2013 and the continuing Syrian civil war, which affected Lebanon and Jordan. Tourist arrivals dropped by 57 percent (on annualized basis) in the three months through September in the oil-importing countries



Oil production in oil-exporting countries - accounting for nearly a third of the region's oil output - has fallen over the past year by nearly 8.5 percent (year to date) in 2013, reflecting security setbacks, strikes, and infrastructure problems in Algeria, Iraq, and Libya, and international sanctions in the case of Iran



External imbalances have worsened across the developing countries of the region. Current account deficits have widened in the oil-importing countries - hurt particularly by the steep decline in tourism receipts - while current account surpluses have shrunk for the oil-exporting countries as oil exports have declined. With only a few exceptions, fiscal imbalances have worsened across the region, especially in oil-importing countries. Deterioration reflects weaker revenues due to slow growth, rising public sector spending on wages, subsidies for food and fuel in the wake of the Arab Spring and, in some cases, increased debt servicing charges



Growth in the developing countries of the region is expected to remain weak during the forecast period, the World Bank said. Under the baseline scenario, marked improvement in the political uncertainty that has plagued the region is not expected. Consequently, aggregate growth for the region, which contracted by 0.1 percent in 2013, is projected at 2.8 percent in 2014, firming to 3.3 in 2015 and 3.6 percent in 2016, well below the region's potential. In developing oil importing countries, consumption will be underpinned by large public outlays on wages and subsidies, while public investment will likely be constrained in the forecast period by large fiscal deficits, while growth in developing oil exporters will strengthen as the oil prices remain relatively high and infrastructure problems and security setbacks are resolved and mitigated



The region's outlook is subject to significant downside risks that are mostly internal to the region. A further escalation of violence in Syria and spillovers to other countries can adversely affect the region. Setbacks in political transitions and further escalation of violence would further undermine confidence and delay the structural reforms or reduce oil output



External risks are more balanced. European growth could disappoint the already modest recovery projected, but it could also do better. Risks from a tightening of global financial conditions could lead to a rise in risk premiums for developing countries and lead to lower FDI. Furthermore, a sharper-than-projected decline in commodity prices could lead to a significant deterioration in external and fiscal accounts of the oil exporting countries while benefiting more vulnerable importers

 


Arab News




  MENA News Headlines
 Apr 1 2015 - India is least E-Commerce Friendly, Says UNCTADKNN India
(MENAFN - KNN India) India is one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world, but the country's online retailing infrastructure is struggling to keep up. According to a new index compiled ...

 Apr 1 2015 - Al Qassimi takes 5th place in 1st leg of Abu Dhabi Desert ChallengeEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) Sheikh Khalid bin Faisal Al Qassimi, Abu Dhabi Racing Chairman, came in 5th overall on the first day of the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge. Al Qassimi set a ...

 Apr 1 2015 - ADOR storms around Cape HornEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (ADOR), the emirate's entry in the Volvo Ocean Race (VOR), has safely rounded ocean racing's most treacherous landmark - Cape Horn at the ...

 Apr 1 2015 - Alitalia and Etihad Airways support Expo Milano 2015 'Made Of Italians' programmeEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) As Official Global Carriers of Expo Milano 2015, Alitalia and Etihad Airways will support the upcoming event's 'Made of Italians' programme by offering exclusive ...

 Apr 1 2015 - Abu Dhabi Chamber discuss expanding economic relations with SloveniaEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry today received a trade delegation from the Republic of Slovenia which included representatives of 30 companies and ...

 Apr 1 2015 - OPEC daily basket price for Tuesday, 31st March 2015Emirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) The price of OPEC's basket of twelve crudes stood at US$51.06 a barrel on Tuesday, compared with US$51.45 the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat ...

 Apr 1 2015 - Saudi Defense Minister receives two messages from Sudanese PresidentEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Minister of Defense, Chief of Royal Court, and Special Advisor to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, has received ...

 Apr 1 2015 - UAE Banks Federation partners with SWIFT to lead discussion on global financial crime regulationsEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, SWIFT, has joined the UAE Banks Federation to bring together senior representatives from ...

 Apr 1 2015 - UAE Ambassador, Somalia's Minister for Higher Education discuss cooperation relationsEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) Mohammed Ahmed Othman Al Hammadi, UAE Ambassador to Somalia, and Somalia's Minister for Higher Education, Khadra Bashir Ali, have discussed ways to boost ...

 Apr 1 2015 - 1000 people of different nationalities including Emiratis registered for smart gate service of GDRFAEmirates News Agency (WAM)
(MENAFN - Emirates News Agency (WAM)) As many as 1000 people of different nationalities including Emirati citizens have applied at the smart gate service during the Dubai government achievement ...

more...


 






Google

Click to Apply

 
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network

MENAFN News Market Data Countries Tools Section  
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network
Arabic MENAFN

Main News
News By Industry
News By Country

Islamic Finance News
Private Equity News

How-To Guides
Technology Section

Travel Section

Search News

Market Indices
Quotes & Charts

Global Indices
Arab Indices

Commodoties

Oil & Energy

Currencies Cross Rates
Currencies Updates
Currency Converter

USA Stocks
Arab Stocks
 

Algeria 
Bahrain 
Egypt 
Iraq
Jordan 
Kuwait 
Lebanon
Morocco 
Oman 
Palestine
Qatar 
Saudi Arabia 
Syria
Tunisia 
UAE 
Yemen

Weather
Economic Calendar
Financial Glossary


Financial Calculators

RSS Feeds [XML]

Corporate Monitor

Events

Real Estate
Submit Your Property

Arab Research
Buy a Research

Press Releases
Submit your PR

Join Newsletters


 
© 2014 menafn.com All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Advertise | About MENAFN | Career Opportunities | Feedback | Help