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Talking Points:
• The FOMC deferred a Taper, but the statement dimmed confidence in a hold until March
• As the market worked out the probabilities, the S&P 500 marked only its 3rd drop in 16 trading days
• Both reflecting uneven risk trends and a reduction in stimulus premium, USDollar climbed a fourth day
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How does the market derive a 'dovish' or 'hawkish' outcome from a Fed that is purposely vague and against a market that is running a heavy bias? Running on expectations set by economists, the market was ready to see a 'soft' statement from the monetary policy group that would confirm the dreaded/yearned-for Taper to March 2014 or beyond. What was delivered was far less than the utter capitulation to stimulus expected. This will encourage some overextended risk bulls to rein in their exposure, but will it truly topple risk trend and leverage the dollar higher? We discuss this theme and the opportunities it presents in today's Trading Video.
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