Eyes on UK GDP after July public finances surprise


(MENAFN– ecpulse) Second-quarter gross domestic product held sway over economic data in Europe just before the weekend kicks off when Germany`s final revision confirmed a robust 0.7 percent quarterly increase.

The revised UK GDP figures are next in focus, after the government saw its first July deficit in public finances for three years, suggesting that tax receipts might start improving over the next few quarter amid signs of economic recovery in Britain.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) due to be released today are expected to impress, boosting Bank of England expectations and bolstering the British Pound, trading in the high range of $1.55 ahead of the revised release.

UK GDP grew by 0.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the initial estimate released by the ONS on 25 July. The second of three estimated is due to be released Friday, possibly showing an unchanged estimate, according to analysts` average forecast.

However, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne could have a pleasant surprise in store if the figure is upgraded to 0.7 percent.

Many economists called for a rebound in construction while survey data on services suggest initial ONS readings for that sector may also have been too cautious.

This positive scenario could boost the case the Chancellor at the end of the week when the Treasury has been buffeted by figures showing that rising public spending left the UK government with a rare deficit for July.

Nonetheless, UK GDP remains 3.3 percent off its pre-recession peak, and that why one of four external members of the Monetary Policy Committee at the BOE, Martin Weale, suggested the need to resort to further "quantitative easing" if the economy stalls again.

Weakness in industrial production has dragged the UK economy into 0.3 percent contraction in the three months ending December 2012.

Although the risk of triple-dip recession is over now, the macro data front is getting brighter this year, delivering recovery hopes a further boost.

The CBI survey this week showed that output growth in UK factories has increased to its fastest pace in two years. It came shortly after the business organization lifted its outlook for economic growth this year from 1.0 to 1.2 percent.


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